Illawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
30
med
Oct 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
6
7
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
13
high
14
med
15
16
17
med
18
low
19
high
20
med
21
med
22
high
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 October to 14 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 28 October to 1 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 October to 21 October, 25 October to 29 October, and 30 October to 3 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 October to 13 October, 18 October to 22 October, and 23 October to 27 October.

Issued Sep 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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A wet end for the northern dry season

13:18 AEST The Top End is experiencing the wettest September month in decades with total rainfall in some places more than five times the long term average.

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