Mid North Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

8
med

9
med

10
med

11
low

12
med

13
med

14
med

15
med

16
low

18
low

20
low

22
low

23
med

24
low

26
low

27
high

28
low

29
low

30
low

31
low

Aug 1
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 July to 16 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, and 25 July to 29 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 July to 16 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 3 August to 7 August.

Issued Jul 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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