Mid North Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

26
low

28
low

29
low

30
high

31
med

Jun 1
low

2
low

3
low

10
low

13
low

14
high

15
med

16
med

17
med

18
med

19
med

20
low

21
low

22
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 June to 11 June, 17 June to 21 June, and 21 June to 25 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 June to 1 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 June to 11 June, 18 June to 22 June, and 27 June to 1 July.

Issued May 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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