Mid North Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

25
low

26
low

27
med

28
high

29
high

30
med

May 1
low

3
low

4
high

5
low

6
low

7
low

8
med

9
low

14
low

16
low

18
low

21
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 April to 4 May, 13 May to 17 May, and 24 May to 28 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 May to 27 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 April to 4 May, 12 May to 16 May, and 27 May to 31 May.

Issued Apr 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Weather News

» all stories

Flood-ravaged NSW holiday park residents struggle to rebuild a month later

21:07 AEST A month after severe flooding, residents of a northern New South Wales holiday park are struggling to rebuild and some desperately need help.