Mid North Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

27
high

28
high

29
med

30
high

31
high

Feb 1
high

2
med

3
med

4
low

6
low

7
med

8
low

9
low

10
low

11
low

14
med

15
med

16
low

17
low

18
low

20
med

21
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 18 February to 22 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 February to 15 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 22 February to 26 February, and 26 February to 2 March.

Issued Jan 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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