Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
18
19
20
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
30
low
31
med
Feb 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
low
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
high
11
high
12
low
13
low
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 January to 31 January, 7 February to 11 February, and 19 February to 23 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 February to 14 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 February to 5 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 19 February to 23 February.
Issued Jan 16
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.