Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
low
Jun 1
med
2
low
3
4
5
med
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
12
13
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
low
18
19
med
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 June to 7 June, 8 June to 12 June, and 14 June to 18 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 May to 31 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 20 June to 24 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 June to 7 June, 14 June to 18 June, and 21 June to 25 June.

Issued May 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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