Arnhem 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
9
med
10
high
11
high
12
high
13
high
14
med
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
30
May 1
2
3
4
5
6
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 26 April to 30 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 April to 17 April, 27 April to 1 May, and 4 May to 8 May.

Issued Apr 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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