Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

29
med

30
med

Jun 1

4
low

5
med

6
med

7
med

13
low

14
low

15
low

16
low

17
med

18
high

19
high

20
high

21
med

22
low

23
low

24
low

25
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 June to 10 June, 22 June to 26 June, and 29 June to 3 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 June to 7 June, 17 June to 21 June, and 22 June to 26 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 June to 10 June, 22 June to 26 June, and 28 June to 2 July.

Issued May 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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