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Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
7
high
high
8
9
10
low
low
11
med
med
12
high
high
13
high
high
14
high
high
15
med
med
16
med
med
17
med
med
18
med
med
19
med
med
20
med
med
21
med
med
22
high
high
23
med
med
24
med
med
25
med
med
26
low
low
27
high
high
28
low
low
29
30
31
Jan 1
med
med
2
med
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 18 December to 22 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 15 December to 19 December, and 2 January to 6 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 1 January to 5 January.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Overnight heat breaks records in New South Wales
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