Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

22
med

23
med

24
med

25
high

26
high

28
low

29
high

Mar 1
med

2
med

3
med

4
med

5
med

6
low

7
med

8
med

9
low

10
low

12
high

13
med

14
low

15
med

16
med

17
med

18
med

19
low

20
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 March to 12 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 21 March to 25 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 February to 4 March, 4 March to 8 March, and 10 March to 14 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 March to 9 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 21 March to 25 March.

Issued Feb 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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