Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

8
low

9
low

10
med

11
med

12
high

13
high

14
med

15
med

16
med

17
high

18
med

19
med

20
med

21
low

22
high

23
high

24
low

25
low

26
med

27
high

28
med

29
med

30
low

31
low

Apr 1
low

2
med

3
med

4
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 27 March to 31 March, and 8 April to 12 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 March to 18 March, 31 March to 4 April, and 10 April to 14 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 March to 23 March, 27 March to 31 March, and 8 April to 12 April.

Issued Mar 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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