Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

23
low

24
med

25
high

26
med

27
low

28
med

31
low

Sep 1
low

4
med

5
med

6
low

9
low

10
low

11
low

12
low

13
low

16
low

17
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 August to 1 September, 17 September to 21 September, and 22 September to 26 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 August to 2 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 August to 1 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 17 September to 21 September.

Issued Aug 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Weather News

» all stories

Rain to replace cold spell in parts of Queensland

14:06 AEST The run of cold mornings continued for parts of southern and eastern Qld on Wednesday, with some places recording their coldest August minimums in decades.