Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
27
low
28
med
29
med
30
31
Feb 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
16
17
18
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 February to 16 February, 21 February to 25 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 January to 1 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 12 February to 16 February.
Issued Jan 23
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.