Darling Downs 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

20
med

21
med

22
low

23
med

24
med

25
low

27
low

Nov 1

3
low

4
low

5
low

6
low

7
low

14
low

15
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 October to 29 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 October to 27 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 11 November to 15 November.

Issued Oct 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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