Darling Downs 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

28
low

Mar 1
med

2
low

3
low

4
med

5
med

8
low

9
low

10
low

11
med

12
low

13
low

14
low

15
low

16
med

17
high

18
high

19
high

20
med

23
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 23 March to 27 March, and 31 March to 4 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 15 March to 19 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 March to 11 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 30 March to 3 April.

Issued Feb 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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