Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
low
Mar 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
high
19
high
20
med
21
22
23
low
24
25
26
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 23 March to 27 March, and 31 March to 4 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 15 March to 19 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 March to 11 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 30 March to 3 April.
Issued Feb 25
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.