Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
med
30
med
31
med
Feb 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
16
17
low
18
med
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
med
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Issued Jan 28
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.