Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

2
low

3
low

7
low

12
med

13
med

14
low

18
low

19
low

20
med

21
low

22
low

23
low

25
low

29
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 November to 12 November, 21 November to 25 November, and 28 November to 2 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 November to 14 November, 15 November to 19 November, and 22 November to 26 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 November to 12 November, 21 November to 25 November, and 2 December to 6 December.

Issued Nov 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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