Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
27
28
med
29
med
30
med
Jul 1
high
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
high
11
high
12
low
13
low
14
15
med
16
high
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
med
22
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 24 July to 28 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 June to 25 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 July to 12 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 24 July to 28 July.

Issued Jun 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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