Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
med
Nov 1
low
2
3
4
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
17
18
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
23
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 November to 18 November, 23 November to 27 November, and 27 November to 1 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 November to 17 November, 18 November to 22 November, and 29 November to 3 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 November to 17 November, 23 November to 27 November, and 28 November to 2 December.

Issued Oct 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Summarising rain in Darwin so far this month

13:14 AEDT La Nina has already made its presence felt in Darwin, with this month already being the wettest October since 2010 - coincident with the last strong La Nina event.

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