Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
Jul 1
2
med
3
med
4
high
5
med
6
high
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
high
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
med
21
med
22
high
23
high
24
high
25
med
26
low
27
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 July to 16 July, 25 July to 29 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 June to 30 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 July to 13 July, 25 July to 29 July, and 1 August to 5 August.

Issued Jun 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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