East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
med
28
29
med
30
med
31
low
Apr 1
low
2
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
high
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 April to 8 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 29 April to 3 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 April to 6 April, 6 April to 10 April, and 27 April to 1 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 April to 24 April, 25 April to 29 April, and 29 April to 3 May.

Issued Mar 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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