Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

22
med

23
high

24
med

25
med

26
med

27
med

29
high

30
med

31
low

Nov 1
low

2
med

3
low

4
high

5
high

6
med

7
low

10
low

11
med

12
med

13
low

14
med

15
low

16
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 2 November to 6 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, 29 October to 2 November, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 2 November to 6 November, and 18 November to 22 November.

Issued Oct 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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