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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
low
low
29
med
med
30
high
high
31
low
low
Feb 1
2
med
med
3
low
low
4
5
6
7
8
low
low
9
low
low
10
11
12
low
low
13
med
med
14
med
med
15
low
low
16
low
low
17
18
19
med
med
20
21
med
med
22
high
high
23
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 February to 15 February, 20 February to 24 February, and 24 February to 28 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 27 February to 3 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 January to 4 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 28 February to 4 March.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Hottest start to year in decades for west coast
14:51 AEDT Perth days for the first half of January are averaging the hottest since 1962. Only two days this month so far have stayed below 30 degrees - and then barely - pushing the average maximum for the month so far up to 33.6 degrees, 2.5 degrees above average.
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