Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
19
low
20
high
21
high
22
high
23
high
24
25
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
Dec 1
2
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
11
med
12
med
13
14
15
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 1 December to 5 December, and 6 December to 10 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 November to 29 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 5 December to 9 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 November to 28 November, 1 December to 5 December, and 6 December to 10 December.

Issued Nov 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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