Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

20
med

21
high

25
low

27
low

29
low

30
med

31
high

Sep 1
low

2
med

3
med

4
low

5
med

6
low

7
low

8
low

9
high

10
low

11
low

12
low

13
med

14
high

15
low

16
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 August to 1 September, 7 September to 11 September, and 11 September to 15 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 September to 16 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 August to 1 September, 7 September to 11 September, and 12 September to 16 September.

Issued Aug 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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