Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

18
med

19
low

20
med

21
low

Mar 1

2
low

4
low

8
low

9
low

12
low

13
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 March to 9 March, 10 March to 14 March, and 15 March to 19 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 March to 16 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 15 March to 19 March, and 21 March to 25 March.

Issued Feb 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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