Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

28
high

29
med

30
med

31
low

Jun 1
low

3
low

5
low

6
high

7
high

8
med

9
low

10
high

11
low

12
med

13
med

14
med

15
high

16
med

17
med

18
high

19
med

20
med

21
low

22
low

23
low

24
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 June to 9 June, 11 June to 15 June, and 27 June to 1 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 May to 28 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 June to 8 June, 8 June to 12 June, and 27 June to 1 July.

Issued May 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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