Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

24
med

25
med

26
low

27
low

May 1

2
high

3
high

4
high

5
low

6
high

7
low

8
low

9
med

10
low

12
low

13
low

14
low

15
med

16
med

17
high

18
high

19
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 April to 4 May, 13 May to 17 May, and 24 May to 28 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 May to 27 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 April to 4 May, 12 May to 16 May, and 27 May to 31 May.

Issued Apr 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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