Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

27
low

28
low

29
low

30
low

Oct 1

2
low

3
low

4
med

11
low

12
low

15
low

16
low

17
med

18
low

20
low

21
med

22
med

23
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 18 October to 22 October, and 27 October to 31 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 October to 21 October, 23 October to 27 October, and 28 October to 1 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 October to 6 October, 15 October to 19 October, and 19 October to 23 October.

Issued Sep 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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