Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

20
high

21
med

22
med

23
low

24
low

25
low

26
low

27
med

28
med

29
low

Dec 1

2
low

3
low

6
low

7
low

11
low

13
low

14
low

15
low

16
low

17
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 November to 29 November, 30 November to 4 December, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 13 December to 17 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 November to 29 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued Nov 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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