Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

25
low

26
med

27
med

28
med

29
med

30
med

Feb 1
low

2
low

4
low

5
low

6
low

7
med

8
med

9
low

17
low

18
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 January to 31 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 12 February to 16 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 January to 30 January, 30 January to 3 February, and 6 February to 10 February.

Issued Jan 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

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Hottest start to year in decades for west coast

14:51 AEDT Perth days for the first half of January are averaging the hottest since 1962. Only two days this month so far have stayed below 30 degrees - and then barely - pushing the average maximum for the month so far up to 33.6 degrees, 2.5 degrees above average.