Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

26
med

27
low

28
med

29
med

30
low

31
low

Jun 1
low

8
low

9
low

10
low

11
low

12
low

13
low

14
low

15
low

17
low

18
low

19
low

20
low

21
med

22
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 June to 11 June, 12 June to 16 June, and 24 June to 28 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 21 June to 25 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 12 June to 16 June, and 19 June to 23 June.

Issued May 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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