Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
23
24
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
med
31
Feb 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
med
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
low
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 January to 31 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 12 February to 16 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 January to 30 January, 30 January to 3 February, and 6 February to 10 February.
Issued Jan 21
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.