Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

19
low

Mar 1

5
med

7
low

8
low

9
low

10
low

11
low

13
low

14
low

15
low

16
low

17
low

18
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 March to 6 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 23 March to 27 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 February to 26 February, and 1 March to 5 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 March to 11 March, and 18 March to 22 March.

Issued Feb 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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