Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

30
med

Jul 1
med

4
low

8
low

9
low

10
high

11
med

12
high

13
low

14
low

15
low

18
low

19
med

20
med

21
med

24
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 14 July to 18 July, and 22 July to 26 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 July to 8 July, 13 July to 17 July, and 20 July to 24 July.

Issued Jun 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

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Wild weather on the way for New South Wales

12:42 AEST After a month of mostly high pressure, a cold front and trough will bump away the high and bring some woolly weather later this week to parts of New South Wales.