Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

May 1
med

7
low

8
low

13
low

14
low

17
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 April to 28 April, 6 May to 10 May, and 21 May to 25 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 May to 25 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 April to 29 April, 19 May to 23 May, and 23 May to 27 May.

Issued Apr 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Wintery front blasts Western Australia

14:56 AEST In what is shaping up to be the coldest April day in more than four decades for some parts of Western Australia, the Easter weekend will likely remain cold for much of the southwest of the state.