Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

23
low

25
med

26
med

27
low

28
low

29
low

31
low

Jan 1

5
low

12
low

13
low

14
low

16
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 20 January to 24 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 December to 20 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 December to 1 January, 3 January to 7 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

Issued Dec 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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