Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

24
low

26
low

27
med

28
low

29
low

30
low

31
med

Aug 1
low

2
med

3
low

4
med

6
low

7
low

8
low

9
med

10
low

11
low

13
low

14
low

16
low

17
med

18
med

19
high

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 August to 7 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 10 August to 14 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Jul 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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