Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
med
27
high
28
low
29
30
med
Jul 1
low
2
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
13
low
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
high
18
med
19
low
20
21
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 24 July to 28 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 June to 25 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 July to 12 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 24 July to 28 July.

Issued Jun 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Canberra slow to thaw after frozen fog of a morning

12:34 AEST Canberra took until brunch to shake off the frozen fog which had blanketed much of northern ACT just before sunrise when it had chilled to minus five degrees.

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