Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
low
29
30
31
med
Jun 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
med
6
high
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
11
12
13
low
14
high
15
high
16
med
17
med
18
high
19
med
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 June to 9 June, 17 June to 21 June, and 22 June to 26 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 June to 14 June, and 29 June to 3 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 June to 9 June, 19 June to 23 June, and 24 June to 28 June.

Issued May 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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