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Ex-Cyclone Debbie: What to expect next

Ben Domensino, Wednesday March 29, 2017 - 12:46 AEDT

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Debbie will bring another two to three days of severe weather to parts of Queensland and New South Wales.

Debbie became the first cyclone to make landfall in Queensland for two years when it crossed the coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach on Tuesday afternoon as a category four severe tropical cyclone.

Wind gusts reached 263km/h on Hamilton Island shortly before landfall, which was a new record for Queensland and the second highest gust ever recorded in Australia.

Heavy rain and a storm surge also contributed to widespread flooding in the lead-up to and during the system's very gradual coastal crossing.

The heaviest rain during the last two days fell west of Mackay. A rain gauge at Mount William recorded 1032mm during the 48 hours to 9am today. Nearby, Clarke Range received 646mm in just 24 hours.

A storm surge greater than two metres was produced to the south of Debbie's core as the ocean piled up against the coast. Fortunately, the peak surge occurred as the tide was dropping in most areas, which mitigated its impact. Maximum wave heights above 10 metres were observed off Hay Point, which was their biggest in more than 20 years.

Debbie made it more than 100km inland as a tropical cyclone before being downgraded to a tropical low over the Central Highlands north of Mount Coolon early this morning.

Despite the system's reduced strength, the threat of severe weather from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie is far from over.

Dangerous weather is continuing today over central Queensland. Wind at Hay Point near Mackay was stronger this morning than during Cyclone Debbie's landfall, with a peak gust of 124km/h recorded at 5:35am.

Heavy rain and gales are still affecting the Central Coast and Whitsundays, Capricornia and Central Highlands and Coalfields districts today as the low gradually moves south. Rainfall totals of 150 to 250mm during today are likely to cause further flooding.

On Thursday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie will start tracking towards the southeast and spread heavy rain and strong to gale force winds into the southeast corner of the state.

This system will still be tapping into a rich feed of tropical moisture tomorrow and is likely to produce 24-hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm in the state's highly populated southeastern districts. Widespread flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding are likely in central and southeast Queensland over the next 48 hours. Damaging winds that are currently affecting the central coast could also spread down into southeast Queensland on Thursday.

As Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie moves south during the next two days it will interact with a cold front crossing New South Wales. This will result in areas heavy rain, storms and potentially damaging winds in the state's east.

Rain will affect most eastern districts of NSW on Thursday, with widespread falls of 50-100mm occurring on the northern coast, slopes and ranges. Isolated totals above 200mm may cause flash and river flooding in the far northeast. Damaging winds may develop along the central and northern coasts as the cold front sweeps through from Thursday afternoon.

Severe weather could continue in southeast Queensland and northeast NSW into Friday morning as the low moves off the coast and deepens once again. At this stage, conditions are expected to ease during Friday as the low moves offshore.

This is a dynamic situation and is prone to change. Be sure to check the latest warnings for updated details on the risk of severe weather in your district over the next two days.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2017

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