Weather News

Fire danger looms for NSW

Ben Domensino, Wednesday November 16, 2016 - 11:58 AEDT

Parts of New South Wales are on track to have increased bushfire potential this summer.

The state has experienced a fairly rapid shift in weather during the last few weeks, from record-breaking mid-year rain and floods to much drier conditions in October and November.

October was the first month since April to receive below-average statewide rainfall and November is on track to follow suit. Around 70 percent of the weather stations across New South Wales received less than half their average November rainfall during the first 15 days of the month.

Despite the drier weather, vegetation growth during October was prolific across New South Wales in response to excessive mid-year rainfall. Nearly all of the state experienced above-average growth, most notably across areas west of the ranges.

October was also cooler-than-average, although temperatures are steadily climbing the spring ladder and will continue to rise in coming months. Parts of central and southern New South Wales are forecast to have their hottest day since last summer at the beginning of next week.

While rising temperatures are typical during spring, the combination of a record-breaking wet mid-year period followed by such expeditious drying and warming is something we don't see every year.

Climate models indicate that the transition into summer will continue this trend by bringing more hot and dry weather.

Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average and rainfall is should to be near-to-below average in most areas of New South Wales in the next couple of months.

The recent vegetation growth and a progression towards hotter and drier weather is in line with predictions made earlier in the year by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Climate Research Centre.

Their Southern Australia Seasonal Outlook report released in August identified that this transition period would most likely lead to above average fire potential across central and western parts of the state in summer. This prediction appear to be on track so far.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2016

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A very wet weekend for southeast Qld, northeast NSW

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