From floods to fires in NSW
Ben Domensino,
Wednesday October 12, 2016 - 11:12 AEDT
New South Wales could go from floods to fires in coming months as weather patterns shift across the country.
The past six months have been remarkably wet for inland New South Wales, with may areas west of the Divide experiencing their wettest April to September period on record.
This sodden spell was driven by a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and La Nina-like conditions in the Pacific Ocean, both of which helped enhanced rainfall across New South Wales.
The mid-year wet spell resulted in prolonged and widespread flooding, which is still affecting some areas this week.
Major flood peaks are still moving down the Lachlan River, while moderate to major flooding remains a threat for the Darling, Murrumbidgee, Edward, Murray and Bogan rivers.
In addition to flooding, months of above average rainfall have also caused prolific vegetation growth on and west of the New South Wales ranges.
The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which measures the current condition and density of vegetation, reveals that there is an above average amount of live, green vegetation across most areas of inland New South Wales. AS expected, coastal districts have near average vegetation in response to more typical rainfall during recent months.
While the boost in plant growth may be beneficial the environment in the near-term, it could be problematic later in the year.
Computer models are general agreement that both the IOD and El Nino/La Nina patterns will be in a neutral phase by the end of spring. This means we are most likely to see rainfall return closer to average and across New South Wales in summer, while temperatures should be warmer than usual. This temperature outlook is in line with the background signal of global warming.
Initially, the threat of bush and grass fires will be suppressed over central and western New South Wales due to water retained in the ground from recent rain and the amount of live vegetation. However, rising temperatures and longer dry breaks during the summer months may cause grass and plants to dry out quickly, increasing fuel loads into the start of next year.
After a quiet start to the fire season, conditions may become more conducive to dangerous fires through inland New South Wales this summer.
The bushfire danger period in New South Wales generally runs from October to March, although this varies by region. Most of the state has now entered the fire danger period for 2016-17. Visit http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/ for the latest updates.
- Weatherzone
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2016