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Hot summer starting with a heatwave in NSW

Ben Domensino, Tuesday November 29, 2016 - 12:28 AEDT

Parts of New South Wales could have their hottest weather in two-to-three years during the opening week of summer.

A broad area of low pressure called a heat trough is funnelling hot air into the state from the north this week, while also triggering daily thunderstorms, mainly in the northeast.

Temperatures have steadily risen in northern areas since the weekend and are likely to reach their peak during the opening days of summer.

Moree and Bourke are both forecast to reach 44 degrees later this week for the first time since 2014. This would also be Bourke's hottest December day in more than a decade. Walgett is forecast to hot 42 degrees for the first time during December in seven years.

Heatwave conditions are likely over the northern inland from Friday until Monday, with temperatures staying 5-10 degrees above average during the days and nights.

The timing of this heatwave will make it the hottest start to summer on record for some areas.

Bourke has never before reached 41 degrees during the first five days of December, with data going back close to 150 years. It's not the earliest run of such heat though, as longer and hotter spells were previously recorded during November.

Southern and eastern districts will be spared from the early-season heatwave, although it won't be a cool start to summer. Canberra could reach at least 30 degrees during the first five days of the season and western Sydney could reach 38 degrees on Friday.

The early-summer heatwave is the latest addition to an overall drying trend that has been occurring during the last two months. This raises concerns about the remainder of the bushfire season in New South Wales.

Rainfall was near-to-below average across most areas during October and November in response to a deteriorating negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a predominantly negative Southern Annular Mode and usually prevalent westerly winds. These influences caused a remarkable and rapid turnaround from the record-breaking rain experienced during the middle of the year.

Looking ahead, summer is expected to be hotter and drier than usual. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to be above average and rainfall below average during the next three months.

Enhanced vegetation growth in the middle of the year, followed by recent drying and impending heat are a perfect recipe for dangerous bushfires in the months ahead.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2016

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