Weather News

Quiet weather coming to an end

Ben Domensino, Wednesday May 23, 2018 - 12:24 AEST

The stable weather pattern that has been gripping Australia through the middle of May will soon break down, making way for more active weather across southern states during the final week of autumn.

A large high pressure system took up residence to the south of Australia during the last week, blocking any strong cold fronts from penetrating the nation's mainland.

In the coming days, this stubborn high will finally move east and pass over the Tasman Sea during the weekend. It's departure will allow stronger cold fronts to return to Australia's southern states.

The first place to see a notable change in weather will be Western Australia. A strong cold front and associated low pressure system will bring a burst of showers, thunderstorms and blustery winds from Thursday night and on Friday. Another weaker front will bring further showers to the state's southwest on Sunday.

These systems will bring welcome rainfall to the state's west coast and adjacent inland districts. The heaviest falls are likely to be south of about Perth, where 30-50mm is likely to fall between Thursday night and Friday night.

Image: ECMWF model showing predicted wind and rain for the upcoming cold front.

As the fronts move further east, the first system will slide south and won't have much impact on South Australia or the nation's southeast. The second front, however, has the potential to have a more significant impact on the region.

Some forecast models suggest that this cold front will surge north and drag a large pool of cold air across southeastern Australia around Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This is the same type of weather pattern that brought widespread snow and severe weather at the start of May.

Image: ECMWF model showing the upper-level pool of cold air that may develop over southeastern Australia on Wednesday 30th May.

At this stage, it's too early to know exactly what's going to happen. There isn't enough consensus between computer models to have much confidence in how this system will play out just yet. However, it's something to keep an eye on in the coming days for those living in Australia's southeast.

- Weatherzone

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