Weather News

Remember when it rained?

Jacobus Cronje, Sunday June 12, 2016 - 12:03 AEST

With large parts of eastern New South Wales still recovering from destructive winds, powerful surf and flooding, saturated soil profiles mean that even moderate amounts of rain could bring flooding.

For most of the Sydney Basin, current Root Zone moisture estimates, the percentage of water in the top 1m of the soil profile, are placed above 65%.

Over large sections of the eastern basin, current moisture estimates are as high as 95%.

The upper portion of the soil profile is currently seeing above-average saturation.

Although factors such as soil type and slope play an important role in drainage, persistent rainfall, even light, could lead to surface runoff due to water not penetrating beneath the soil quickly enough.

What this means is that a rainfall event leading to persistent rainfall, even under relatively low rates bringing totals near 20mm over two days, could bring localised flooding.

An event on the scale seen during 4 - 6 June is therefore not needed in order to bring at least some areas of flooding.

Looking at the likelihood of rainfall over the next week, it seems a good chance that the Sydney Basin could receive upwards of 15mm from Friday 17th to Monday 19th, when a trough and low should deepen along the east coast.

Thankfully, a high pressure system over the next couple of days will lead to clearer skies and warmer days, helping to dry things out considerably before any rainfall occurs.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2016

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