Weather News

Spring climate outlook a tough one to swallow

Bob Neil, Thursday August 16, 2018 - 15:08 AEST

The Bureau of Meteorology have today released the latest climate outlook for September to October. Against most wishes but in reality as expected, warmer and drier than average is the forecast for much of the country.

The outlook favours warmer than average days during spring for the whole country. Nights are likely to be warmer than average for most areas, only excluding northern and southeast mainland parts. So what is influencing the climate outlook? Dominant high pressure over much of Australia is the main reason.

This winter, the belt of high pressure across the country prevented most cold fronts from pushing too far north, only really bringing good rainfall to far southern parts of the country. Dry air associated with the highs also limit cloud formation, meaning more sunlight hours, allowing days to warm above the norm.

The start of spring is not looking too dissimilar from winter. There is a 50% chance of El-Nino forming later in spring, double the normal chance, which is not great news. This usually means less rainfall for eastern Australia, less clouds and higher than average daytime temperatures. Cooler than average sea temperatures in the northwestern Indian Ocean are also contributing to the outlook, as less moisture is forecast to be transported to southeastern parts of Australia.

However, as winter departs and we head into summer, more convective activity is likely. Thunderstorms will become more apparent, although the rain associated can drench one town and leave its neighbour completely dry. Overall, the climate outlook for Australia, at least in the short-term, is not moving away from what has been the trend over winter.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2018

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