Weather News

Tropical cyclone risk increasing for WA

Ben Domensino, Friday January 3, 2020 - 20:48 AEDT

There are increasing signs that a tropical cyclone could form off Australia's northwest coast in the coming days.

A low pressure system is expected to form within the monsoon trough this weekend, between Australia and Indonesia. Forecast models suggest that this system will deepen over the following few days as it moves closer to Western Australia, with an increasing chance that it could develop into a tropical cyclone early next week.

The Bureau of Meteorology's three-day tropical cyclone outlook give this system a 5 to 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone on Sunday and a 20 to 50 percent chance by Monday.

Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall (24 hours) and mean sea level pressure on Monday, January 6th, according to the ECMEF-HRES model.

While it's difficult to predict where the system will move during the next several days, a number of computer models suggest that it will drift towards the northern coast of Western Australia into the start of next week.

Regardless of whether this low turns into a tropical cyclone, there is a good chance that wind and rain will increase over northern parts of WA early next week. If a tropical cyclone does form, it may case more severe weather, with heavy rain, damaging winds and a storm surge all possible effects should it near or cross the coast.

The next tropical cyclone to form in Australian waters will be named Blake.

- Weatherzone

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