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Channel Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
4
low
low
5
med
med
6
med
med
7
med
med
8
9
10
11
12
low
low
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
low
low
25
low
low
26
low
low
27
28
29
30
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 December to 13 December, 15 December to 19 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 December to 10 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 31 December to 4 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 December to 13 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 30 December to 3 January.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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