Australian long range seasonal weather forecast IOD Indian Ocean Dipole

Observations update weekly on Monday evenings, forecasts update monthly around the 12th

The temperature of the Indian Ocean box, and forecasts from only the BoM model over the next six months.

If the forecast enters the green area, the Indian Ocean should push tropical moisture towards Australia (known as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). When low pressure moves through it helps bring soaking rain to southern AUS in Autumn, Winter and Spring.

If the forecast enters the brown area, the Pacific Ocean should push tropical moisture away from Australia (known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). This leads to drier than average conditions, even if low pressure is nearby, as there is less moisture available to feed them.

This index naturally decays to neutral each Summer, thanks to the monsoon.