Jane's Weekly Update: Thursday 26th June 2025
This weekly update coming to you on a Thursday this week.
After a wild few days in the southeast, the big weather system has moved away over the Tasman Sea and high pressure is moving in calming things down.
Up next is a sneaky little cold front on Sunday/Monday that brings a light top up (and light snow top up for the alps).
This front has bigger plans though, with it's upper atmosphere energy going on to let a low form off the NSW coast next week. This is one to watch because, depending on where it moves, it could have big impacts for those adjacent parts of the coast.
Meanwhile, there is some out of season rain coming into Queensland again over the weekend, heading into the southeast.
The southwest is fairly quiet to end the week and over the weekend, before things ramps up again next week.
Potential rain over the next week
Looking closer at the low off the NSW coast. These are known as an East Coast Low (ECL) and they are very typical for this time of year.
We can get significant lows, that rapidly develop (known as explosive cyclogenesis, try saying that five times fast :) ), and if you are near or just to the south of one there can be serious impacts.
Our worst ECL's have sunk bulk carrier ships, and one of them was responsible for the Pasha Bulker coming ashore in 2007 (stands out in my memory as I was on shift at the bureau at the time).
Next week's ECL doesn't look too close to the coast at this stage - but as always, it is nearly a week away so if you are in the area please keep an eye on the latest forecasts.
Next week's East Coast Low may have some big impacts depending on where it moves
At this stage, Newcastle looks to be one of the most impacted spots, from Tuesday to Thursday. If the low comes closer than what the modelling suggests now, the rain and winds will increase. These can bring damaging to destructive winds, torrential rainfall, huge tides and coastal inundation, and hazardous surf... if they are right near the coast.
The latest forecast for Newcastle, NSW shows the rain and wind with this system, as one of the closest locations to the low at this stage
For an in depth look, don't miss my video update: