Jane's Weekly Update: 21st November 2025
We have Cyclone Fina in the Top End this weekend, great conditions for cricket in Perth and a rain system crossing the southeast.
Cyclone Fina enters a favourable environment on Friday to restrengthen to a category 2. It is likely to cross close to Darwin on Saturday night. Fina may reach severe tropical cyclone strength - a category 3.
Once Cyclone Fina finally crosses the coast and/or dissipates over the ocean, we have the moist "leftovers" that may hang around for the next week or two. This can be picked up by any weather system crossing the south or east, giving it an extra injection of moisture, resulting in heavier than usual rain for those in the path.
In the southeast we have a rain system passing through over the weekend. The wet weather increases over eastern VIC and NSW, with lighter falls to the west.
The first day of the cricket in Perth is perfect. Then there is wet weather on the forecast for every day that follows. However, the timing of the wet weather is also perfect. It is only likely at night, the days in between should be all dry.
Looking at the drivers of our climate over the next few months, and the box in the Indian Ocean has nearly lost all of its blue colouring. That brings an end to the imbalance from the west to the east, and an end to our strongly negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
In the Pacific Ocean the box continues to 'turn more blue' while the waters off Queensland are warmer than average. This imbalance is a weak La Nina, and should encourage extra moisture to feed into Australia from the Pacific Ocean for the next few months. Whenever that runs into low pressure then there is heavier than usual rain for those in its path.
