Significant rain returning to the east, followed by heat and fire danger

BoM’s bleak two week rain outlook (published here last week) couldn’t be further from actuality if you’re in southern Queensland or eastern NSW, but it is spot on if you’re in South Australia, and both western Victoria and NSW.

A trough is going to be a persistent feature on the weather map to end the week and begin the weekend, fed by moist winds from the Pacific Ocean, resulting in significant rain anywhere east of that trough line.

Widespread falls of 25 to 50 mm are likely, with locally heavier totals thanks to thunderstorms.

After kicking off on Wednesday, the activity spreads out further on Thursday, with southern Queensland, northern and eastern NSW in the storm risk zone, just creeping into northeast Victoria.

Friday’s storms are likely to be through southern Queensland, eastern NSW and eastern Victoria.

On Saturday there is a little activity further west in Victoria and NSW. Heavy falls aren’t likely there, but do keep a watch if you are harvesting.

The trough finally moves on Sunday, contracting northeastwards, taking the storm risk zone with it.

While the activity has been across southern Queensland to end the week and on Saturday, the southeast coast will mostly miss out during this period. That changes on Sunday and persists into early next week as southeast Queensland becomes the main area likely to see storms, extending up through eastern Queensland.

What this extended period of wet weather also achieves is a break from the heat. But do note that the heat hasn’t disappeared, it’s just contracted away from far eastern and far southeastern Australia.

It is still over the interior, and dips down into the southwest of the country over the weekend and into early next week.

Then it should progress eastwards, with heatwave conditions and increased fire danger mid to late next week in the southeast, and returning to much of NSW.