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I’m going to focus on the drought affected areas of southeastern Australia. They stretch from Ceduna in South Australia, across the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas to the Murraylands and South East, then across the border into Victoria, through the Mallee, Wimmera and South West…

We have yet another week ahead of us where parts of Queensland and NSW see the majority of the rain while the south misses out. A belt of high pressure stretches across southern Australia, encouraging onshore winds for the east coast. These pick up moisture from the warm oceans to our east and push it onto the coast, delivering showers. Meanwhile, the belt of high pressure stops any weather systems from having a significant impact along the southern coastline (and no impact at all inland).

May isn't likely to deliver much needed rainfalls, but things look slightly better as we go into winter and spring. The Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) shows we have warm yellows in the Indian Ocean box, but there are warm yellows and reds near Australia, providing a source of moisture. The Pacific Ocean box was a cool blue over summer, and is now neutral, but there are warm yellows and reds near Australia, providing a source of moisture.

There has been very little rain anywhere away from Australia’s coastline during the past week. For the majority of the time we have a stubborn high pressure system sitting over the southeast or the Tasman Sea.

Did you find it rather warm as you woke up this morning, perhaps your morning run felt more like it was still summer? Much of Melbourne just experienced their hottest May night on record.

We're well into the first week of May, but the weather pattern doesn't seem to understand the calendar. Melbourne and Adelaide are likely to be warmer than Brisbane and Sydney (and Hobart isn't far off).