No forecast available for this district.
Rainfall deciles |
10 |
Well above normal |
8-9 |
Above normal |
4-7 |
Near normal |
2-3 |
Below normal |
1 |
Well below normal |
Issue Notes
ENSO status: El Niņo, breaking down.
IOD status: Neutral.
SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive.
The El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niņo and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niņo, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niņo only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia.
Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
Issued Mar 5