ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Dec 1

3
low

6
med

7
low

9
low

10
low

11
low

14
med

15
high

16
high

17
low

18
low

19
med

20
low

21
med

22
high

23
high

24
med

25
low

26
low

27
med

28
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 December to 9 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 December to 9 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 23 December to 27 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 December to 9 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 17 December to 21 December.

Issued Nov 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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