ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

25
high

26
low

30
low

31
med

Nov 1
low

3
med

5
med

6
low

8
low

10
med

11
low

13
low

14
med

15
med

16
low

19
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 19 November to 23 November.

Issued Oct 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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