ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

28
high

29
high

Jun 1

6
low

7
low

9
med

10
med

11
low

12
low

17
low

18
low

19
low

20
low

21
low

22
med

24
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 June to 18 June, 23 June to 27 June, and 30 June to 4 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 May to 29 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 June to 8 June, 23 June to 27 June, and 30 June to 4 July.

Issued May 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search