ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
20
low
21
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
27
low
28
29
low
30
med
31
med
Sep 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
med
7
8
med
9
high
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
high
14
low
15
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 August to 31 August, 10 September to 14 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 August to 1 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 20 September to 24 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 15 September to 19 September.

Issued Aug 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Chilly morning to come for southwest WA

16:27 AEST Cold air in the wake of a front will lead to rapid cooling tonight across the southwest of the state.

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