ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

23
med

24
med

26
high

27
low

29
low

30
med

31
med

Feb 1
med

2
med

3
low

4
low

5
low

6
low

7
low

8
low

9
low

13
low

16
low

17
low

18
med

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 17 February to 21 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 January to 30 January, 2 February to 6 February, and 8 February to 12 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 January to 31 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued Jan 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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