Lower Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
low
23
low
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Feb 1
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
16
17
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 January to 28 January, 15 February to 19 February, and 22 February to 26 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 February to 15 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 February to 20 February, and 22 February to 26 February.

Issued Jan 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Site search


Enter a postcode or town name for local weather, or text to search the site. » advanced search

Jumpers and raincoats needed for Melbourne & Adelaide

16:47 AEDT Temperatures well below average are forecast for Melbourne and Adelaide over the coming days, with some drizzly rain also adding to the chill factor.   Daytime temperatures are only expected to reach a top of 21 degrees on Monday in Melbourne, as a trough residing over the region keeps skies overcast and some possibly strong southerly winds persist throughout the day.

Help with Farmonline Weather