Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

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No forecast available for this district.

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-04-30, 2024-05-16 and 2024-05-21. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-04-28, 2024-05-06 and 2024-05-12. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-04-26, 2024-05-20 and 2024-05-24.

Issued Apr 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Signs indicating Australia's cool season arrival

16:15 AEST Mere hours after our Total Lightning Network went quiet over the Australian continent, the Himawari satellite captured a clear, textbook snapshot of the arrival of Australia's cool season. A few distinguishing features should catch your eye: A band of cloud streaming over northern WA and towards the nation's interior A distinct clearing of cloud from most of the NT's Top End, and A band of cloud crossing to the south of WA Turns out, all three of these features point to one thing: winter is knocking at the door. Image: Himawari satellite imagery and mean sea level pressure (ECMWF) over Australia on the morning of Saturday, April 27th, 2024.