Capricornia 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
27
low
28
29
low
30
Dec 1
2
low
3
low
4
high
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
low
15
16
low
17
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 November to 2 December, 9 December to 13 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, and 3 December to 7 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued Nov 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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The rain lottery continues across NSW

11:40 AEDT For those looking towards the sky for the next rain event, it will be much more of a hit-and-miss affair, rather than the steady soaking that is required.

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