Capricornia 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
med
29
30
31
low
Nov 1
low
2
med
3
4
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
17
18
low
19
20
21
22
23
low
24
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 November to 10 November, 17 November to 21 November, and 26 November to 30 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 November to 5 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 30 November to 4 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 November to 16 November, 17 November to 21 November, and 26 November to 30 November.

Issued Oct 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Summarising rain in Darwin so far this month

13:14 AEDT La Nina has already made its presence felt in Darwin, with this month already being the wettest October since 2010 - coincident with the last strong La Nina event.

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