Riverland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

27
low

28
low

29
low

30
low

31
low

Feb 1
low

2
low

3
low

4
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 January to 29 January, 3 February to 7 February, and 12 February to 16 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 5 February to 9 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 January to 29 January, 1 February to 5 February, and 12 February to 16 February.

Issued Jan 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Hottest start to year in decades for west coast

14:51 AEDT Perth days for the first half of January are averaging the hottest since 1962. Only two days this month so far have stayed below 30 degrees - and then barely - pushing the average maximum for the month so far up to 33.6 degrees, 2.5 degrees above average.