Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
high
26
med
27
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
low
Apr 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
low
5
med
6
high
7
8
high
9
med
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
high
14
high
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
high
19
med
20
med
21
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 March to 1 April, 6 April to 10 April, and 17 April to 21 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 March to 25 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 March to 1 April, 5 April to 9 April, and 16 April to 20 April.

Issued Mar 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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