Midlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
11
high
12
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
18
high
19
med
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
low
25
med
26
low
27
high
28
low
29
low
30
low
May 1
med
2
high
3
high
4
low
5
6
7
low
8
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 April to 24 April, 30 April to 4 May, and 8 May to 12 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 April to 24 April, 24 April to 28 April, and 1 May to 5 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 April to 24 April, 24 April to 28 April, and 9 May to 13 May.

Issued Apr 9

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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