Weather News

Long term rain outlook

Guy Dixon, Friday May 13, 2016 - 11:18 AEST

Following a large scale rain event which encompassed much of the country earlier in the week, the prospects of follow up rain look fairly ordinary in the near future.

A high pressure ridge that is dominating the Australian continent looks to remain stubborn, deflecting any frontal activity to the south and limiting the chances of a decent trough deepening inland.

The remainder of May will remain fairly dry for mainland Australia as a result, with very few decent indications of significant rainfall.

Moving into June and July however, the chances of decent rain looks to increase. The influences of much warmer than average sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean and the breakdown of one of the strongest El Nino events on record favours above average rainfall over most of the mainland, particularly southern QLD, much of NSW and SA, northern VIC and eastern parts of WA.

Multiple long range models have good consensus that a La Nina phase may become established by spring 2016, which would increase the chances of above average rainfall for northern, central and eastern Australia.

While the immediate future doesn't hold much hope, indications for mid-late winter and spring remain positive for many agricultural areas.

- Weatherzone

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