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Southern Oscillation Index

location
Aus

period
Weekly
Monthly

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

A strongly and consistently positive SOI pattern (e.g. consistently above about +6 over a two month period) is related to a high probability of above the long-term average (median) rainfall for many areas of Australia, especially areas of eastern Australia (including northern Tasmania) - La Niña.

Conversely, a 'deep' and consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6 over a two month period, with little change over that period) is related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year - El Niño.

However, it is important to remember that the pattern of relationship between SOI and rainfall (and temperature) can vary depending on the particular season and region. Additionally, the change in SOI over a specified period can be as important in understanding relationships between SOI and rainfall as is the absolute value in SOI.

Southern Oscillation Index

Nino3.4 Index

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Weather News

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Decent rain en route to bone-dry southwest WA

14:29 AEST Welcome rain is coming to the parched southwest WA this week, possibly including Perth and Bunbury which are both having their driest 7 months on record. Many locations in the southwest will see the driest April on record, with much of this rainfall likely to contribute to May’s totals, as a cold front approaches the state on later in the week. Rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast in the Gascoyne region on Monday afternoon, before shifting to the Central West, Lower West and Central Wheatbelt regions on Tuesday.