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Central Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
low
low
15
16
low
low
17
low
low
18
low
low
19
low
low
20
21
low
low
22
23
low
low
24
low
low
25
med
med
26
low
low
27
28
low
low
29
low
low
30
low
low
31
low
low
Aug 1
low
low
2
low
low
3
4
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 July to 30 July, 31 July to 4 August, and 7 August to 11 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 2 August to 6 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Taree's wettest day on record with 305 mm
10:34 AEST Heavy rain is finally clearing the NSW coastline, but not before the almost week-long deluge delivered one last record soaking for parts of the NSW Mid North Coast.
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