Weather News

Storms hitting WA as Perth's wait for rain continues

Ben Domensino, Friday April 26, 2024 - 11:52 AEST

Despite thunderstorms rumbling over WA today and more rain on the way next week, Perth’s nervous wait for decent rain could continue into May.

Friday morning’s sunrise revealed a large mass of clouds producing rain and thunderstorms over the southern inland of WA. This wet and stormy weather is being caused by moisture-laden air interacting with an upper-level trough, which is a typical mid-autumn weather pattern in southwestern Australia.

Image: Composite satellite, Oracle rainfall and lightning strike observations at 8:20am AWST on Friday, April 26, 2024.

Rain and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Gascoyne, Goldfields and Central Wheatbelt districts during Friday, generally spreading from west to east. Drier weather will then return for most of the state on the weekend, before another rain-bearing system arrives next week.

As we pointed out earlier this week, there is some uncertainty regarding where and how much rain will fall in WA next week.

Most models agree that a low pressure trough and associated low pressure system will cause rain and thunderstorms to develop over western and southwestern districts of WA between Monday and Thursday. However, it is unclear whether this rain will mostly stay inland or include Perth and other parched areas of the state’s west coast.

Below are accumulated rain forecasts from three different models for the seven days between today and Thursday next week.

Images: Forecast 7-day accumulated rain for the week ending on Thursday, May 2, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES (top), GFS (middle) and ACCESS-G (bottom) models.

All three models shown above agree on the general area that will see rainfall over the coming week. However, there is an obvious lack of alignment in terms of how much will fall and which areas will see the heaviest rain.

For Perth, this forecast uncertainty is likely to cause some frustration as the city waits for a decent drop of rain to break its ongoing dry spell. The city just endured its driest six-month period on record after collecting only 21.8 mm between October and March. As of Friday morning, there has only been another 1.2 mm in the city’s gauge during April.

It is clear that some area of WA will see useful rain over the coming week and there is some hope of rain for Perth. However, there is also a decent chance that the city’s record-breaking dry spell will continue into the opening week of May.

- Weatherzone

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